UK doesn't need continuous deterrent

20th May 2010
Defence Management
 

Cutting the number of nuclear deterrent submarine patrols could save the UK more than £11bn and extend the life of the Vanguard class submarines, according to a study from the Royal United Services Institute.

The UK has maintained continuous nuclear patrols since 1968, but the study's authors say that this practice is based on assumptions that are "irrelevant" today, and that less frequent patrols would not necessarily compromise the deterrent's credibility.

Authors Nick Ritchie and Paul Ingram say that dropping the continuous deterrent could extend the operational life of the submarines beyond 2024 - their original out of service date - and mean that the UK does not need to order as many boats to replace them. This would result in the estimated £11bn of savings.

"A direct military threat from a nuclear-armed state that puts the very survival of the UK at risk is extremely unlikely to emerge overnight," the study concludes. It suggests Britain could keep a nuclear-armed submarine on "enhanced alert" in port, ready to sail at short notice if intelligence suggested that a nuclear threat was imminent.

"Any decision to sail a Trident submarine would likely be part of a wider and observable mobilisation of the UK's armed forces rather than a singular event".

The study also says that the concept of 'minimum deterrence' "is not fixed and absolute" and that the UK could take "a major leadership role as the most progressive of the nuclear weapon states by reducing the operational readiness and size of the current and future nuclear force."

In the coalition government's formal agreement document, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats said the Trident programme would continue but would be scrutinised "to ensure value for money".

Before the election the Lib Dems had suggested including Trident in the strategic defence review, as lifetime costs had been estimated at around £100bn. The agreement document said that the Lib Dems would "continue to make the case for alternatives".

 
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